Political changes and voter transitions (2017-2022)
Authors: Nikola Tulechki Ivailo Partchev
How do the election results reveal the transition of votes from one party to another?
For more than 30 years, Bulgarians have been voting freely - and quite inconsistently. They fall in and out of love with new and new political idols in an accelerating rhythm. The results are known: the percentage of voters is decreasing and the configurations chosen steadily lead to political instability and the inability to form a government.
The interest in these movements, transitions, redistributions of political preferences that lead us from one situation to another is explainable. The analyses we have seen published so far usually use survey data.
The infographic that Ivaylo Parchev and Nikola Tulechki have developed is based on another approach: a mathematical model of the official CEC data at the municipality level from the last five parliamentary elections. The details are difficult to explain (experts can take a loot here), but the metamorphosis of votes can be traced without detailed explanations.